Politico: Clinton takes lead among youth

"Barack Obama may draw crowds on college campuses, and he may be the most popular guy on Facebook, but recent poll results challenge the common assumption that he is the candidate of the young. Rather, Hillary Rodham Clinton seems to have taken the lead among 20-somethings.

A Nov. 1 survey of 400 18-to-29-year-olds showed the New York senator held a surprisingly large lead among young voters who identified themselves as Democrats. Clinton led her nearest competitors, with 54 percent, followed by her Illinois counterpart, with 24 percent, and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, with 8.4 percent.

While polls have never shown Obama with a consistent lead among young Democrats, he has generally fared better among them than among Democrats as a whole. But now pundits may need to reexamine the assumption that Obama has the youth vote wrapped up.

“For quite some time, the polling has shown the 18-to-29-year-old primary vote was about even between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and just recently Clinton was pulling ahead,” said Kat Barr, director of research for Rock the Vote, one of the poll’s sponsors. “Young people are trending in ways similar to the overall electorate.”

In addition to Rock the Vote, the Nov. 1 poll was commissioned by World Wrestling Entertainment’s Smackdown Your Vote. It was performed by the Sacred Heart University Polling Institute.

The Obama campaign, unsurprisingly, dismissed the poll. Hans Riemer, Obama’s national youth vote director, said it is an outlier and the result must be statistically flawed. He pointed instead to an Oct. 31 survey by the Pew Research Center as a more accurate result. It showed Clinton leading Obama 42 percent to 32 percent among Democratic-leaning voters under 30 — a 10-point margin. Clinton held a 21-point lead among voters in all age groups who lean Democratic.

Pew surveys back in March and April showed Obama beating Clinton among young Democrats and tying her among more liberal Democrats. Clinton now leads in both categories. Experts have said her popularity has grown among older Democrats for the same reasons younger voters are joining her camp.

“Young voters are not just idealistic,” said Gary Rose, a professor of political science at Sacred Heart who served as a consultant for the poll. “They are also on the practical side as to who can achieve these objectives.”

Clinton’s young supporters often argue that she has the experience to actually accomplish the major goals shared by the leading Democrats, such as withdrawal from Iraq, reforming health care and taking action on climate change.

Said Ashley Ruiz-Margenot, 20, a junior at Florida State University who plans to vote for Clinton: “I feel more comfortable with her level of experience.”

Voters of all ages also cite President Bill Clinton’s tenure as a reason for supporting the former first lady.

Uriel Tapia, 23, of Columbus Junction, Iowa, said, “Both my parents went for [Bill] Clinton two times, and they’ve said good things about him. Just as she helped out during his presidency, he would be at her side.”

Young voters also share the widespread sense that it’s long past time for a woman president. Among all younger voters in the Rock the Vote poll, Clinton got 22 percent of young women to Obama’s 11 percent. She led him by only 14.7 percent to 12.6 percent among young men.

Clinton’s campaign embraces the advantage. “Her candidacy is exciting to young women. They see the chance to shatter the final glass ceiling in electing her,” said Clinton spokesman Isaac Baker. And even Tapia, a male Clinton supporter, said, “I don’t know that this country needs another man president.”

Finally, the many polls showing Clinton ahead reinforce her lead to a certain extent. Ruiz-Margenot, for example, said, “I really like John Edwards. He’d probably get my vote if I thought he’d get the nomination. But I think he won’t.” Given a choice between Clinton and Obama, she said she thought Obama had too little experience.

Riemer, however, argued that Clinton’s current advantage essentially comes down to name recognition. He contended that in the early states where voters have gotten to know Obama, he is doing better —particularly among young voters in Iowa, where some polls show him ahead.

The Obama campaign, according to Riemer, will turn out enough young voters to win in Iowa, and then the national polls will change accordingly. “This is not about a poll two months before the election,” said Obama spokeswoman Jen Psaki. “This is about which campaign is best equipping young people to participate in the process, which is what we have been planning for months.”

But both the Clinton campaign and observers such as Rose questioned whether an Obama victory in Iowa will be enough to stop the Clinton juggernaut.

“I don’t think Iowa will have that catapulting effect [for Obama or Edwards],” Rose said.

“Clinton is ahead in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and Feb. 5 will seal the nominee.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1107/6805.html